The falling of Afghanistan and US washing hands of Afghanistan has put the whole global order and international system into anxieties. Regional and neighboring countries are now facing threats and geopolitical anxieties. It seems that Biden’s move on Afghanistan has backfired on him and presented fractured results.
An Old History of Getting Fracture
Americans have a good history when it comes to dealing with the conflict or putting boots in the conflict zones Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan are witnesses of such actions. Pushing a state’s environment in a hot-blooded war on the global war of terror or for some other gains be it regional or political was almost had its place in US Security calculus. Cold War serves as a classical example of American’s firepower in conflict and the above-said case. It has also been seen that the US has also experienced decisive failures and shock in dealing with conflict and wars on foreign soil which provided more losses than profits and now the Afghanistan episode has again made the fracture occur on the bones of the US’s security calculus.
Decisive Failure yet again: An Analysis
The prime responsibility or a prerequisite factor that is required for a state to engage in the war or conflict is setting up a firm strong decisive mechanism or objectives backed by solid assessments and intelligence. But the excitement and sometimes with the intent to hammer power and showcase the hegemonic firepower the US had ignored the prerequisite factor and reasonableness or decisiveness of the act and as consequence US suffered in some of the conflicts and drew flanks in its own country from strong institutions and media houses. The Battle of Tora Bora in Afghanistan is the best example that shows America’s hastiness in dealing with conflict, especially in Afghanistan. CIA was confused about the presence of Osama Bin Laden in Afghanistan and thus was hesitant in giving its full say over conducting an operation in Afghanistan but despite having solid assessments US Special Forces went and strategically failed as it gave rise to the insurgency in Afghanistan and Osama Bin Laden escaped. Once again, these mistakes are repeated when the US decided to withdraw from a war ton country after 20 years. Afghanistan saw its evolving future under three presidents and now Biden which makes it four – George Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Everyone had one commonality over the Afghanistan issue- to withdraw US forces but no one became so quick and showed hastiness in the withdrawal process. Especially from Obama to Trump both of them processed the need for withdrawal of US troops but none has pressed so much on the withdrawal as much as Biden did. Everyone knew that after US troops’ withdrawal Afghanistan’s future will be in turmoil and the same was highlighted by CIA Chief before or during the process of US withdrawal. And again, as the US does ignore the assessments and intelligence before taking conflict-related decisions and following the old fashion of jumping and showing hastiness in conflict-related decisions took a jump in the decision on Afghanistan and as consequence getting fracture not only on US Security calculus but to Biden’s Administration and especially to Afghanistan’s future.
As usual, the US is stubborn in accepting its mistakes when under fire from every lobby or inside the home. US argues that the US went on a mission to finish Al-Qaeda and Taliban- part of the global campaign against Terrorism and now sees that the US’s job has done but in sheer contradiction, US again strategically failed as Terrorism is reviving again in Afghanistan both Taliban and Al-Qaeda and to add on ISIS-K is coming in play inside Afghanistan. This not only contradicts the US argument but defeats the US’s rationale especially on the security domain in Afghanistan and rather make US responsible for pushing Afghanistan into the dark future or mess which Afghanistan is facing today. US conflict-related decisions never had a place for strategic successes it only gives space to tactical successes (a short-term/lived success which can be overturned anytime just like the Taliban did In Afghanistan. The US argues on tactical grounds and not on strategic grounds and it is imperative to mention here that War or conflict’s success is assessed that how much strategic success you had gained or whether you have attained decisive victory or not. Just a mere tactical victory in the conflict does not mean that you have won the full war. Tactical victories are those small victories in conflict or war that help you to reach to big and final victory. US plays smart moves in fooling people in order to justify their actions- they celebrate tactical victory as if they have won the full war or present tactical victories in such a manner that presents the US as a full-fledged winner of the conflict or war. But now US finds difficulty in justifying this messy withdrawal move as it neither provides any strategic ground nor any tactical ground to US for argument. Things went worse when US faced its deadly attack in Afghanistan a few days back which killed 13 American soldiers. All these developments have now shrunk all the arguments which US was desperately attempting to float or hold on the water.
Act of Control
US has now started to control the fire and pressure in and out home is conducting drone strikes and avenging the death of 13 soldiers. This may cool some things down but this hasty and messy decision surely would have larger implications on the security of the global order especially to regional and major players in South Asia. Whatever may be the case the time will now tell how many fractures it would cause to global security and geopolitical domain?